Genoa Smart Week, Mastinu (Cluster Trasporti): In 10 years, 70% of vehicles will be electrified. The compartment needs to be recalibrated

Published 30 November 2020

In 2019, 2.3 million electric vehicles were registered worldwide, a percentage of 2% of the entire production. China dominates the world scenario, followed by Europe and the USA. 

At the same time, the development of charging infrastructures is growing, both on the public front and on the domestic and corporate side. At the end of 2019, 6.5 million charging points were operational worldwide, while public ones amounted to just under a million. The fast charge service is spreading in Italy, which allows a full recharge in an hour or less.

In the city of the future, electric mobility will play a fundamental role: the sector is currently in full development but its diffusion is still limited.

This is the scenario that emerged during the virtual conference “Smart Mobility: sustainable mobility solutions in the short and medium-long term”, which took place in streaming mode within the context of the Genoa Smart Week.

During the meeting, Gianpiero Mastinu, Coordinator of the Scientific Council of the National Transport Cluster and professor at the Milan Polytechnic, spoke to illustrate the role played by the automotive industry in the process of spreading technologies related to electricity.

“Around 100 million vehicles were built around the world in 2018; 1 billion vehicles are racing across the globe against 40,000 airplanes; 7 thousand billion euros is the sum of money transferred from the mobility sector with 13 million employees in the EU; European automotive companies invest around 50 billion euros annually in research and development. From this it is evident that the automotive industry can be defined as the industrial industry. But to build an electric vehicle it is necessary to rethink many parts of the industrial sector. About 80% of the value of a car comes from component manufacturers. Electricity is not yet widespread because the industry is not ready, it is necessary to put in place an effort of gigantic proportions to adapt the industry, but it is especially necessary now that the demand is growing “. Among the factors to be evaluated, Mastinu then explained, there are the performance of the vehicles, still not entirely in line with that of a non-electric vehicle.

The Politecnico di Milano is working on some fundamental technological processes such as the electrification of the brakes and the propulsion system. “The National Cluster elaborated in 2016 and kept updated the roadmaps on electric vehicles: the production processes to reach the delivery to the consumer are long. At the same time, the infrastructures must be recalibrated, still to be developed. Important developments related to propulsion and batteries are expected for 2030. But we must keep in mind that in 10 years KPMG estimates that 70% of the vehicles that will circulate on our roads will be electrified”.

In spreading this technology, the geopolitical problems arising from the transition must also be taken into consideration: “Decarbonizing the planet also means freeing ourselves from economic relations with countries that supply fossil fuels. After this step, however, attention must be paid to the monopoly that China exercises in some sectors, such as that of rare earths. The production of batteries is also located in the Far East”.

At the end of 2019, 17 thousand electric cars were registered in Italy, of which 10 thousand in pure electric version. Basically, of the 2 million cars registered, electric represents 0.9%. The eco-bonus is changing scenarios. In the last 4 years, from 2017 to 2020, pure electric vehicles have grown, benefiting from incentives and the increased supply from the industry. Unfortunately, however, the negative impact of the health crisis weighed: interestingly, while registrations of conventional cars contract, electrified ones grow, in sharp contrast.